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Thursday, September 26, 2013

Citi raises 2014 Brent price outlook on supply worries

Citi Research raised its 2014 Brent price forecast to $108 per barrel from $99, citing the geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa.

The research division of Citigroup said the geopolitics of the region will always matter for oil as the region is the source of 40 per cent of global oil supplies.

"Despite the bearishness of new crude capacity coming online and continued US supply growth, Citi expects the deteriorating state of much of the Middle East and the persistence of current supply disruptions to keep prices supported," Citi analysts said in a note.

"The state of affairs in the (Middle East and North Africa) region continues to worsen."

Current disruptions in Libya, Iran and Nigeria require complex structural change in order to permanently bring back offline barrels, according to the analysts.

The restarting of western Libyan oil fields might help the country's output reach 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the near term, but the deeply politicized strikes in the East show few signs of abating, keeping more than 800,000 bpd of crude capacity offline.

"A lack of military presence further inhibits political stability and absent a quick resolution, the situation could further deteriorate," analysts said.

The research division of Citigroup expects secular trends of international shale production, fuel conservation measures and natural gas-for-oil substitution to continue and likely be accelerated by higher oil prices.

Source: EconomicTimes


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